Why Sierra Leone is on the brink of war

Ahead of Sierra Leone's flag day on April 27, social media commentators have expressed concerns that the next elections may be influenced well before 2028, following the widely discredited June 2023 elections. 

Jeminatu Sesay shared an infographic highlighting the roles of institutions, funding, and narrative in shaping election outcomes before voting occurs. 

She urged Sierra Leoneans to scrutinize the institutions overseeing the process, those setting the rules, the sources of political funding, and the individuals shaping public opinion. 

Another analyst, Alfred Peter Conteh, noted that election laws were not upheld in 2023.

Edmond Alpha, chairman of the Elections Commission of Sierra Leone, who declined to publish the 2023 results as required by law, has indicated he does not plan to change his approach in 2028. 

Last week, the embassies and high commissions of Germany, Ghana, Iceland, Nigeria, and the United Kingdom expressed support for the International Moral Guarantors Joint Assessment Mission to Sierra Leone, which includes representatives from the Economic Community of West African States, the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel, and the Commonwealth. 

In their statement to the people of Sierra Leone, the delegates recommended establishing a Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, as outlined in Recommendation 20 of the Tripartite Report, to review the electoral cycle, assess preparedness, and guide reforms for the 2028 general election. 

The mission took place amid the imprisonment of Zainabb Sheriff for remarks about removing Maada Bio's wife from the candidate slate, citing her history of divisive comments on nationality, patriotism, and political party membership. 

Sierra Leone has faced similar challenges in the past. 

During the Siaka Stevens era, dominance over the Constitution and rule of law led to the intimidation and harassment of dissidents, journalists, and citizens. 

Ibrahim Forna, who has made several appeals to the International Criminal Court, has called on Zainab Sheriff's family to stop issuing public apologies, asserting that she is a victim of a regime seeking to silence critics of the pa-o-pa faction of the Sierra Leone People's Party, which Maada Bio hijacked in 2005. 

On April 19, Jeminatu Sesay shared a video in which Kadiru Kaikai threatened to initiate conflict in Sierra Leone if he is not president by 2028, estimating the cost at $3.3 million. 

Kaikai, a former New York entrepreneur, reportedly plans to begin this conflict in Makeni, the largest city in the Northern Province and home to former President Ernest Bai Koroma. 

Makeni is a key commercial, educational, and transportation center with a 2021 population of 85,116. 

The 2025 Africa Organized Crime Index identifies Sierra Leone as a significant transit and consumption hub for cocaine, with Guinea-Bissau leading the index, followed by Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and South Africa. 

Convicted drug lord Jos Leijdekkers remains active in Sierra Leone, alongside prominent Lebanese networks involved in cocaine distribution. Nigerian groups are also engaged in the production of crack cocaine.

According to a Humanium report, the 11 years of civil war and armed conflict in Sierra Leone devastated the lives of thousands of children.

During the conflict, children as young as five were coerced into the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) before committing various atrocities under military duress.

These children were exploited as human shields and laborers, among other roles, often losing family and any sense of normalcy as they were robbed of their development.

Humanium observed that even after 20 years removed from the war, organizations in Sierra Leone were still working to reintegrate traumatized youths into society, providing rehabilitative support and opportunities to participate in normal employment opportunities.